Years to reach most of humanity vs year introduced, with curved fits

x linear, y log. Curves extended down to 1 hour.

source: Same 11 estimates and sources as adoption-10k-years.pages.dev (Our World in Data/ITU, World Bank, GSMA, archaeology refs; tech list Lipsey, Carlaw & Bekar 2005 via Wikipedia) • transform: Boxes = estimate ranges (teal measured, amber reasoned bracket); dots = midpoints used in fits. Purple diamond = Mike's scenario (gen AI majority mid-2027, from the log-log line), NOT data: real use is ~15% of humanity weekly on ChatGPT. Hyperbola: years = A*(x0 - year)^k; quadratic: log(years) = a + b*year + c*year^2; least squares on log10(years). Solid = with the AI point, dashed = without. RMS in log10 units. • drawn 2026-10-21 02:18 UTC